Oil Prices Stay Weak After OPEC+ Approves Modest Output Rise

Oil prices ended the week on shaky ground after OPEC+ approved a modest production increase of 137,000 bpd, signaling cautious confidence in supply demand balance but leaving markets skeptical about a quick recovery in prices.

Brent crude hovered near $65 per barrel, while TI traded around $61, both struggling to rebound from last week’s sharp losses. The alliance’s decision, announced Sunday in Vienna, suggests OPEC+ is trying to unwind previous cuts without sending prices into a deeper slump.

The new adjustment will take effect in November, as part of the group’s plan to gradually roll back the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts implemented over 2023–2024. However, traders view the move as a cautious signal rather than a show of strength.

With global inventories rising and demand indicators still soft, the modest increase was smaller than some had feared, yet still enough to keep prices from staging a meaningful rebound.

Oil futures initially ticked higher on relief that OPEC+ avoided a larger output hike, but gains quickly faded as the focus returned to sluggish demand and a looming supply surplus.

Supply Still Outpacing Demand

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil market remains oversupplied by about 1.2 million bpd. The new OPEC+ increase will likely add to that, especially as refinery runs in Asia and fuel demand in Europe continue to weaken.

• China’s crude imports fell again in September as refineries trimmed production.
• U.S. refinery utilization is easing during seasonal maintenance, reducing short-term crude intake.
• European diesel demand remains soft amid slowing manufacturing and freight activity.

These trends suggest OPEC+’s cautious optimism may be premature.

Sunday’s meeting once again revealed the alliance’s internal divisions. Saudi Arabia continues to push for price stability above $75–80 to support its fiscal balance. Russia and Iraq, however, favor higher production to secure revenue and domestic funding. The UAE and Kuwait are quietly pressing for more room to increase exports.

The agreed 137,000 bpd increase appears to be a compromise, large enough to appease the more aggressive members, but small enough to avoid triggering a price collapse.

Technical and Short Term Outlook

From a technical standpoint, Brent crude is now trapped in a $63–68 per barrel range.

• A break below $63 would likely push prices toward $60, testing key psychological support.
• A move above $68 would require a clear improvement in demand data or signs of a pause in OPEC+’s output expansion.

For now, the market is likely to stay range-bound as traders weigh OPEC+’s cautious tone against ongoing economic weakness.

What To Watch

With the OPEC+ decision out of the way, attention turns to:

• U.S. crude inventory reports, for early signs of demand recovery.
• China’s upcoming trade data, which could confirm whether the world’s top importer is stabilizing.
• OPEC’s own monthly oil market report, due next week, expected to revise demand forecasts slightly lower.

Unless global consumption shows improvement or OPEC+ hints at pausing future hikes, analysts expect oil to trade near $60 - 65 through mid October.