市場匯評

US jobs report came in way better than anyone expected, 172,000 jobs added versus the 85,000 predicted. Before this report, the weak labor market had investors expecting interest rate cuts to prevent an economic slowdown despite sticky 3.8% inflation. But an increase in hiring proved the economy is resilient, Fed now has a better hand to focus entirely on fighting inflation with higher interest rates.

Investors are optimistic, it’s based on US/Iran negotiations - they might agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, there are already good signs - oil prices dropped over 5%. Cheaper oil means people are less worried about rising prices and high energy bills for now.

Trump launched "Project Freedom" on Sunday to free stranded cargo ships, pulling oil prices back from extreme highs. US Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%, better than Q4's 0.5% but below expectations, while inflation (PCE) accelerated to 3.5%. All eyes this week are on Tuesday's Services PMI and JOLTS, Wednesday's ADP jobs data, and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls.

Geopolitical tensions spiked as Iran threw away plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following the sustained US blockade. Tensions escalated further after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman.

• Key Data: US Retail Sales (Apr 21); UK CPI & Oil Inventories (Apr 22); US Jobless Claims & Flash PMIs (Apr 23); UoM Inflation Expectations (Apr 24).
• Earnings: Q1 results remain strong; major US banks report healthy profits with 2026 full-year estimates trending upward.

Markets enter the final Q1 week under heavy pressure as the Iran-Israel-US conflict hits its fifth week. The S&P 500 nears correction territory amid energy-driven inflation risks. With oil over $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.4%, expectations have shifted from rate cuts to a possible hike later this year. Key focus: Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, Tuesday’s Eurozone CPI, and global manufacturing PMIs

U.S.Israeli military aggression against Iran entered its third week. FOMC meeting (March 17–18) with its updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) will be the most closely watched event: the first meeting where the Fed must formally incorporate the Iran war's effects on inflation and growth into its forward guidance. Markets currently assign a 92%+ probability of a rate hold at 3.50% - 3.75%, per CME FedWatch, but the press conference on March 18 will set the tone for the rest of the year.

Trump's 15% blanket global tariff remains in place, keeping supply chain volatility elevated. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires May 23, 2026 with Kevin Warsh considered to succeed him.

• FOMC Meeting (March 17–18): Rate decision plus dot plot, first post-Iran war projections
• Bank of England & ECB policy meetings, Super Week for central banks
• U.S. energy data (EIA crude inventories) - closely watched amid Strait of Hormuz closure
• Any signs of ceasefire or Strait reopening will move all markets

Markets are waiting for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will dictate the Federal Reserve's next move. Additionally, markets are digesting recent U.S. trade policy disruptions, specifically a 15% blanket global tariff that has kept volatility elevated. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s "Two Sessions" meetings starting Wednesday, where new economic targets and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be released.

Markets are reacting after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the current emergency tariffs. Soon after, the White House proposed a new flat 10% global tariff.
Investors expect a very large move (about 8% up or down) before Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues are also important. If the talks succeed, oil could fall by $5 - $10; if they fail, prices will stay higher because markets will keep adding a safety buffer for geopolitical risk.

上週末，特朗普總統暗示可能與伊朗達成可行協議。這緩解了此前推高市場價格的戰爭擔憂。在美國，凱文·沃什被提名執掌美聯儲的消息，令投資者預期利率可能在更長時間內保持高位。本週經濟數據同樣關鍵，尤其是週五的美國就業報告，可能對市場產生顯著影響。

本週最大的新聞來自美國首都。經過一週關於對歐洲加徵關稅和格陵蘭交易的威脅後，特朗普總統似乎軟化了立場（這又是老一套——先用可怕的事情威脅，然後改變主意，提出不那麼惡毒的建議，結果不知怎的大家就都接受了）。然而，焦點迅速轉向加拿大，因其可能與中國達成的貿易協議而出現了新的100%關稅威脅（這是一種“千刀萬剐”式的緩慢侵蝕——往往通過逐步升級、不易察覺的變化來破壞民主價值觀和制度，直到造成重大損害）。

在美國方面，PCE年率錄得2.8%，仍高於政府2%的目標。因此，市場現在預期美聯儲將等到6月或9月才會開始降息。