可可 技術分析 - 可可 交易: 2018-12-18

Drought can reduce crop yields

There is a drought in West Africa. Will Cocoa prices rise?

On the daily timeframe, Cocoa: D1 is moving upward within a rising trend. The further price increase is possible in case of a reduction in crop yields in the countries of West Africa.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
• The Bollinger bands have narrowed, which indicates low volatility. The lower band is titled upward.
• The RSI indicator is above 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case Cocoa exceeds the last fractal high and the upper Bollinger band at 2300. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the two last fractal lows, the Parabolic signal and the lower Bollinger band at 2070. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (2070) without reaching the order (2300), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis