Markets This Week: Record Stocks, Rising Oil & Jobs Data - 5.4

• EUR/GBP - ECB and Bank of England held rates last week, but markets now price a 75% chance of an ECB hike in June and over 50% for the BoE. UK inflation hit 3.3% and retail sales fell to their worst reading since records began.
• EUR/USD - last week EUR/USD rally looked more like dollar weakness than euro strength, leaving it fragile. The eurozone is now in slow growth, sticky inflation, which makes any ECB rate hike a risky move.
• USD/JPY - yen was the week's biggest forex story. Japan's Vice Finance Minister warned speculators and then intervened, pulling USD/JPY back from a two-year high of 160.72 to around 156.56. Analysts say intervention only works short-term.

ASX 200 closed at 8,729 on Friday, snapping an eight-session losing streak (+0.74%). Tech and financials led. Iran uncertainty still clouds the outlook.

Dow Jones slipped 0.31% to 49,499 on Friday, bucking the broader rally. A huge earnings week ahead with 121 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Palantir and Tyson Foods.

GB 100 (FTSE 100) flat for the week, ending slightly lower Friday. High inflation, weak spending, and the threat of a BoE rate hike are keeping British stocks subdued.

Nasdaq hit a fresh all-time high of 25,114 (+0.89%) on Friday, powered by Apple's earnings beat. AI spending remains strong. More big-tech results this week will be critical.

Nikkei rose 0.38% to 59,513 on Friday but fell 0.34% across the full week. The yen's sharp rebound hurt exporters. The BoJ now sees 2.8% inflation and just 0.5% growth for FY2026, rate hikes look increasingly likely.

S&P 500 hit a record all-time high of 7,230 on Friday, the first ever close above 7,200. April was the best monthly performance since 2020. Robust earnings have driven gains, but the Iran war remains the key risk to watch.

Brent is trading around $108 heading into Monday after peace talks through Pakistani mediators. Volatility will continue, ceasefire or escalation news could swing prices $10–20.

WTI pulled back from a seven week high of $107 to around $101 heading into Monday. OPEC+ added a modest 188,000 barrels per day of supply. Iran peace talks are the single biggest driver to watch.

BTC/USD is holding above $75,000 but struggling to crack $80,000 resistance. A clean break above could open the door to $90,000; a loss of $75,000 would likely delay any rally. The 200-day moving average at $83,842 is the real bull/bear line. Strategy reports earnings Tuesday; whether Michael Saylor keeps buying his 818,334 BTC stash will be a major market signal. 
ETH/USD remains under pressure, trading below its 200-day moving average with neutral-to-bearish momentum. A close above $2,400 would turn the picture more bullish; a drop below $2,300 risks a slide to $2,200. ETF outflows of $23.6 million on April 30 contrast poorly with Bitcoin's positive flows. Upcoming Senate debate on the CLARITY Act crypto regulation bill could provide a boost to confidence later in May.