可可 技術分析 - 可可 交易: 2017-01-11

Political crisis in Cote-d’Ivoire

Cocoa prices are correcting up amid the armed revolt in Cote-d’Ivoire and slightly worsened weather in West Africa. Will cocoa prices continue rising?

On the daily chart Cocoa: D1 is in descending channel. Its decline slowed down recently and several indicators have formed signals to buy. Further price increase is possible in case of heightening political tensions in Cote-d’Ivoire and worsened weather conditions in West Africa.

• The Parabolic indicator gives bearish signal. It may serve the additional level of resistance which has to be surpassed to open long position.
• The Bollinger bands have widened which means lower volatility.
• RSI is below 50, it has formed positive divergence.
• MACD gives bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case cocoa surpasses the last fractal high, resistance of the descending channel and the Parabolic signal at 2280. This level may serve the point of entry. The initial stop-loss may be placed below the last fractal low and the 4-year low at 2100. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop-loss level at 2100 without reaching the order at 2280, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis